IATA estimates that shipping a single dose to the 7.8 billion people around the globe would fill 8,000 superjumbo Boeing 747 aircraft. “Land transport will help, especially in developed countries with local production capacity,” said the IATA statement. “However, vaccines cannot be shipped worldwide without the significant use of air freight.” Even if half of the world’s vaccines are delivered by ground transportation, distributing the remaining vaccines would still be the airfreight industry’s biggest transportation challenge, according to de Juniac.

The vaccine certificate will be a new travel document

Just as proof of a negative COVID-19 test is becoming the standard requirement for traveling on certain flight routes, having proof of a vaccine can become as important as having a passport when flying some international routes.

One airline, the Australian airline Qantas, has already given evidence of plans to require passengers to show that they have been vaccinated before boarding.

“We want to change our terms and conditions to say for international travelers that we will ask people to get vaccinated before boarding a plane,” said Alan Joyce, CEO of Qantas, in one Television interview On Sunday. “Whether you need this domestically, we have to see what happens in the market with COVID-19. But I think this is a necessity for international visitors and people who are leaving the country.”

Joyce also mentioned that passengers will likely need to prove they had a vaccine that is considered effective by the Australian government.

Apps like Common passportThe airlines have put the COVID-19 test results in a standardized format to make them more readable. You can also view a passenger’s vaccination status.

Tests and masks remain in place – even after a vaccine approval

Do not expect Airport test sites for COVID-19 or Airline mask requirements go away after a vaccine is approved. Indeed, with the early introduction of vaccines, testing could become even more important.

“I think we need both,” said John Holland-Kaye, CEO of London Heathrow Airport, recently Bloomberg news of tests and vaccinations. “Tests are the only game in town where people will go back to normal in the near future because even if the UK gets early access to the vaccine it will take the whole country a year and a half to be vaccinated. And of course that is a global problem. And it will take much longer for even the fastest vaccine in the world to work. So testing has to be our focus. “

Additionally, both vaccines, which are nearing approval, require two doses to be effective, with the second shot being given three to four weeks after the first. Even if vaccinations are widely distributed, face masks are crucial until the majority of people can receive both doses.

At least 60 to 70 percent of the world’s population must be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity – a tipping point where community spread becomes unlikely – and to slow the spread of the virus the BBC.

After this point maybe mask The rules will gradually relax, but Holland-Kaye noted that “it may take a few years” for vaccinations to be effective enough that travelers don’t need an exam or quarantine when they go on a trip.

Flight schedules will be slow to return to pre-pandemic levels

Flight plans do not return to normal for some time. According to a recent Cowen Investment Bank airline memo, “the best case scenario is a ~ 50% recovery rate by the time vaccine is available,” and even if vaccinations begin, medical and airline experts say air travel will return to prepandemic volumes will take time.

“We don’t expect enough vaccines to be available in 2021 to achieve global herd immunity,” said Dr. Richard Hatchett, CEO of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparation Innovation, rolled into one earlier this year Goldman Sachs report. “The short term goal is therefore to fight the pandemic by lowering death rates and serious illnesses and protecting health systems, which should set the world on track to restore normal economic activity.”

From an aviation perspective, this means that some industry representatives believe that flight demand and capacity may not fully recover for three years.

“I don’t think things will be completely normal at all. I think this is very unrealistic by the end of next year,” said Gary Kelly, CEO of Southwest Airlines, in one current change forum. “I think we have to be mentally prepared for a really tough 2021 and then look forward to a much better recovery from 2022 and then the chance for things to normalize [pre-pandemic] Levels until 2024. “

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