A banner over empty Front Street greets people in October. While Maui County’s tourism recovery is forecast to be stronger this year than the rest of the state, employment numbers will not follow at the same pace, according to a University of Hawaii economist. Photo by Maui News / MATTHEW THAYER

Maui County’s tourism is expected to recover more rapidly this year than the rest of the state, according to a University of Hawaii economist. However, employment numbers will not follow at the same pace.

Carl Bonham said Thursday that visitors are already looking for Maui and that vaccines are being introduced on the mainland, where most of Maui’s visitors come from, more tourists could be heading to the Valley Isle. In contrast, Oahu is seeing more international visitors, and since international vaccine rollout in countries like Japan and Korea is slower than the US, Oahu is unlikely to see such a sharp increase in visitor traffic, said Bonham, executive director of economic research for the University of Hawaii organization and economics professor at the University of Applied Sciences.

“Maui is a premier travel destination. All of Hawaii is a premier travel destination, but Maui has a special status. “ Bonham said. “It always did a really good job of maintaining its image. . . . There is pent-up demand for this. Yes, we believe Maui will return stronger than the other islands in less time and approach a full tourism recovery than any other island. “

According to the quarterly forecast of the UHERO, a full recovery in tourism is on record today “A few more years.”

However, the report notes that US tourism will pick up pace towards the summer and fall as the number of cases falls and vaccination rates rise. In its baseline forecast, UHERO predicts that visitor arrivals will make up for half of their pandemic losses by July and visitor spending will make up almost 70 percent of their losses by the end of the year.

However, business failure and economic damage to lower-income households will continue to be a challenge, and a full pre-pandemic employment recovery remains for several years to come.

“Our outlook for Hawaii continues to be characterized by exceptional uncertainty.” the report said.

Bonham said Maui County’s visitor numbers this year will be 110 percent higher than in 2020, and will double from last year.

According to the report, no other county is expected to see visitor numbers double this year compared to 2020. According to Maui County, Hawaii County’s visitor numbers are projected to increase nearly 89 percent this year over the previous year.

However, Maui’s popularity as a travel destination comes at a cost. When travel stalled last year, Maui’s visitor numbers and visitor industry-related sectors saw a bigger decline than other locations. Bonham said Maui County is the most dependent on tourism, closely followed by Kauai.

The report predicts that around 1.7 million visitors will fly to Maui County by air this year, up from around 832,000 last year, but still below the 3.1 million visitors that came in 2019.

Maui County is not expected to see pre-pandemic visitor numbers for the next several years. 2.6 million visitors are expected in 2022 and around 2.9 million visitors in 2023.

The island of Maui had the highest unemployment at the start of the pandemic, rising from about 2 percent in March 2020 to 36 percent the next month. While unemployment rates have improved somewhat as some businesses reopen, Maui’s employment will lag behind the rest of the state even if visitors keep arriving, Bonham said.

“Jobs will not return in lockstep with visitors,” he said. he said.

He stated that employers have brought back the staff necessary to keep their businesses going and that companies are not operating at full capacity.

Until there are more visitors, higher spending and reliable trends for arrivals, employers will be reluctant to hire new workers, Bonham said.

He added that another contributor to Maui’s low workforce is that service-industry companies, especially those related to tourism like restaurants, closed during the pandemic.

It “It may be well into summer before we see a real surge in jobs.” Bonham said.

After a year of 17.9 percent unemployment, Maui County’s 2021 unemployment rate is likely to be the highest of any county at 11.6 percent. By comparison, the unemployment rate is projected to be 9.8 percent in Kauai County, 7.9 percent in Hawaii County, and 5.9 percent in Honolulu County.

Unemployment in Maui County is projected to decrease with an expected rate of 5.5 percent in 2022 and 4.6 percent in 2023, approaching the rate of 2019 when unemployment was 2.6 percent.

For more information on the forecast, visit the UHERO website at uhero.hawaii.edu.

* Melissa Tanji can be reached at mtanji@mauinews.com.

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