Ambarish Chandra is an economics professor at the University of Toronto. His most recent research explores travel across the US-Canada border.

Travel restrictions and border closings can develop quickly in times of pandemic. It was only in the last few days that the new Omicron variant was identified in several places in southern Africa and prompted numerous countries to restrict travel from the region. Canada has forbidden any foreign citizen who recently traveled to any of seven African countries, reflecting similar moves by the United States and the European Union. Meanwhile the WHO warned of these actionswhich sparked a debate about whether such measures are having an impact.

The WHO’s response is justified. Canada’s experience with travel restrictions as the pandemic progresses suggests that, given our extensive ties with other countries, there is no point in preventing variants from entering Canada. especially the USA. In fact, there is only a weak correlation between the timing of border closings and spikes in the target countries.

In addition, border closings and travel restrictions have been applied unevenly and grossly unfairly in the past. When Great Britain announced the new Alpha variant, Canada a flight ban was imposed in this country on December 20, 2020. That was canceled after 17 days, although the alpha wave caused a massive increase in the number of cases in Great Britain for many weeks. In contrast, when India reported the Delta variant, Canada banned all travelers from that country for 158 days, from April 22nd to September 26th. It did so despite the fact that cases in India peaked in early May and remained low throughout the summer. The double standard was evident, and yet both the alpha and delta variants eventually made it to Canada.

The speed with which recent travel bans have been imposed on the countries of southern Africa suggests yet again that Canada is quick to take tough action against developing countries, but is reluctant to do so against rich western countries. Several reports suggest that the Omicron variant was already present in Belgium and the Netherlands at the time these bans were imposed, but there is no discussion of extending the measures to these countries.

We have to be ready for Omicron, but let’s not assume the worst

Canada’s travel restrictions on the United States didn’t make sense. We even restricted travel last spring when the US had a much faster introduction of vaccines and a lower number of cases per head as we. Conversely, we have finally reopened for travel that is not absolutely necessary August, just as the US was peaking its delta fall wave. The US, in turn, banned travelers from Europe for most of the pandemic when the number of per capita cases in that region was typically lower, only to be lifted this month when the number of European cases was higher.

In the early days of the pandemic, WHO warned of travel restrictions, arguing that these could prevent aid and resources from getting where they are needed. This was recently made clear in Canada when flood-stricken British Columbia residents urgently needed access to fuel and supplies across the border, but were still tested negative for COVID-19 on their return – until the government hastily dropped the requirement. Previously, Canadians called for vaccines, which were freely available in the US, however prevented by border closings from accessing them.

The WHO’s admonition was forward-looking and accurate: it is entirely possible that these travel restrictions did more harm than prevent. Given Canada’s already tight supply chains and rising inflation, we cannot afford any further uncertainty about the US border as we rely on 15,000 trucks every day.

While new variants cannot realistically be kept out of any country that has links to the rest of the world, travel restrictions can potentially delay initial diffusion, which can be useful to buy time. However, this is only important if we anticipate an imminent change in the framework conditions, such as the use of new vaccines or drugs or the material expansion of medical facilities. This was arguably the case in April 2020 when we were struggling to secure personal protective equipment for health workers, and in February 2021 when new vaccines appeared on the horizon. But there are no new treatments to come.

Travel restrictions are easy to impose but very difficult to reverse, both due to bureaucratic inertia and the reluctance of governments to take responsibility for later developments. Opposition parties and provincial leaders already ask for restrictions because they are popular. However, they are discriminatory and ultimately self-destructive.

The Omicron variant is already in Canada. Federal and state governments should act at their own discretion regarding domestic containment, but they shouldn’t pretend that foreign travel restrictions make a difference.

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