With the early spread of COVID-19 vaccines, the first steps to resume labor migration in the Pacific region, and the hope for an international travel bubble between Australia and New Zealand, questions now arise as to what additional measures should be taken before international tourism returns to the Pacific. In this context, the World Bank’s analysis, How Could the Pacific Restore International Travel? and ensure a steady economic recovery.

The Pacific countries have so far managed to largely protect citizens from COVID-19 by closing international borders. However, the economic impact of the pandemic in the region has been significant. Current economic modeling The World Bank shows that all Pacific economies are likely to have contracted by 2020 – especially those that depend on tourism. For example, Fiji is estimated to have a nearly 20% decline in GDP in 2020. While a slight recovery is expected in 2021, production levels are not expected to hit pre-COVID19 levels by 2022 or later.

“We want to help policymakers in the Pacific and PNG make informed decisions about the risks and benefits when and how they choose to reopen to international travel,” said Michel Kerf, World Bank Country Director for Papua New Guinea and the pacific islands of motivation for making the report.

“Due to weak health systems, large COVID-19 outbreaks could have devastating consequences for the region. Recent World Bank surveys show that the economic impact of the pandemic and closed borders are forcing families to make difficult choices go out to eat or withdraw children from schooland these can have harmful consequences for years to come. “

The report suggests re-opening the Pacific voyage gradually, but notes that easing the strict border policy alone will not bring immediate economic benefits. The three phases are:

  • Phase 1 starting between January and July 2021: Pre-approved travel for specific groups (more temporary workers, students, etc.) Strong testing and quarantine measures would be the foundation of any travel bubble.
  • Phase 2 begins between June 2021 and May 2022: a “travel bubble” with commercial flights for businesses and tourism. This would require continued COVID-19 containment, improved testing and tracking, and the introduction of vaccinations for the first time.
  • Phase 3 begins between October 2021 and October 2022: a “new normal”. Longer term general international travel requiring widespread coverage of COVID-19 vaccines and treatment with vastly improved testing and tracking.

“The ‘triple win“Workforce mobility – for individual workers, for Australian and New Zealand companies, and for the PNG and Pacific economies – means we strongly recommend prioritizing it in Phase 1,” said Andrew Blackman, author of the report.

“Tourism also plays a central role in several Pacific economies, with many implications for domestic supply chains and benefits for both sexes. Not many other industries offer the same economic and social benefits, but opening up to tourists poses a major health risk and must therefore be carefully planned. The World Bank is committed to helping our partner countries across the region determine best course of action, ”continued Blackman.

The report warns that Pacific governments and their partners must invest heavily in testing and tracing functions at every stage of reopening, and each country must weigh that financial burden against the potential benefits of resuming international travel. Assuming the widespread adoption of current COVID-19 vaccines will take months, it is unlikely that “normal” travel arrangements will be made before the end of 2021.

Based on this proposed timetable, activity across the Pacific could remain depressed for another 9 to 18 months. To address this issue, the World Bank’s second phase of COVID-19 support to the region will focus on helping countries cope with the economic and social impact of the pandemic, helping businesses, safeguarding jobs and reforms Advance necessary to accelerate recovery towards a broader population. based and sustainable growth.

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