Virgin Galactic’s VSS Unity will take off from Mojave on December 13, 2018 for a suborbital test flight. … [+] California. – Virgin Galactic marked a major milestone Thursday when its spacecraft reached an altitude of 82.7 kilometers after taking off on a plane from Mojave, California and then firing its rocket motors to reach new heights. (Photo by Gene Blevins / AFP) (Photo credit should be GENE BLEVINS / AFP via Getty Images)

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It’s a moment I’ve been waiting for for years: At least once a week – if not almost every day – there’s a new headline on space tourism. Virgin Galactic is changing its leadership team to prepare for paid passengers. Blue Origin is quietly testing in the stratosphere over West Texas. Two new competitions – Inspiration4 and #dearMoon – both promise a chance to win your place in an adventure that isn’t worth it. A new Space Hotel is announced at least once a year. Oh, and Elon Musk’s SpaceX team keep pulling hundreds of thousands of eyeballs on livestream to document the steady progress of Starship – the ship that will eventually carry people to Mars.

Space has never felt so close and yet so far away.

After engaging in the space tourism industry in 2017, I have patiently waited for actual space tourism – like so many of you. But it’s not hard to see if your patience is wearing off, especially when each new announcement has an overly ambitious schedule that inevitably lets us down.

This feeling is not unique. Christian Davenport, a distinguished space journalist for the Washington Post who wrote the book The Space Barons to document the stories of the billionaires who fund the private sector in space, tweeted in response to the DearMoon project’s announcement last week:

When the professionals in the industry – among their most enthusiastic fans – sub-tweet the seemingly arbitrary schedules that make headlines and earn tons of clicks, you know something is wrong. (Granted, it’s hard to know exactly how long it will take SpaceX to prepare for the DearMoon mission, since it is currently being planned aboard the spaceship.)

“The #dearMoon mission is still promoting 2023. This will almost certainly not be the case. Starship is still in development and must make several successful unscrewed space flights before humans can fly, ”tweeted Laura Seward Forczyk, the founder of Astralytically, which offers spatial analysis and advice.

“Companies should try not to over-promise. Rethinking unrealistic plans is a great way to build a cynical customer base, ”said Seward Forczyk in a follow-up interview. “Instead, companies should be honest with customers and focus on flying when it’s safe.”

Obviously, there are several advantages of committing to a specific year, with the increased public interest and media exposure being the main focus. However, if you publish overly ambitious – one might even say unrealistic – release schedules, it can hurt the mission in the long run. Just think how many space hotels should have opened at that point.

This latest editorial by AJ Mackenzie for The space assessment says it well when it comes to the Voyager space station announced a few days ago: “Confusing the belief that any company or organization can build the largest space station in the world that can accommodate hundreds of people in just six years the mind, ”writes Mackenzie. “Much smaller space projects experienced delays and cost overruns. […] There is no reason to believe that this would be an exception. (This article delves into the savage ideology and economics of ideas like this “space hotel” in much greater depth and is valuable read if you nod along.)

Mid shot of young woman enjoying the view and a cup of coffee in a spaceship

getty

Of course we all understand: space is hard and you have to make it safe. But it’s a double-edged sword between hype that gets its mark and that disillusioned us – the potential customer base one day.

“History has shown us that all the announcements about the space tourism date were overly optimistic. From the great ambition of space hotels to the cautious, slow-moving Blue Origin, every space tourism timeline has slipped, ”concludes Seward Forczyk. “Future predictions should only be trustworthy when both the space tourism company and customers are ready.”