GENEVA, June 30 (Reuters) – Except in some western markets, international tourist arrivals will stagnate this year, causing losses of up to $ 2.4 trillion, a UN study said Wednesday.

COVID-19 vaccinations and certificates are key to restoring confidence in overseas tourism, which is a lifeline for many countries, especially small island nations that rely heavily on the sector to create jobs, it said.

In 2020, international arrivals fell 73% from pre-pandemic levels in 2019, leading to an estimated $ 2.4 trillion in losses in tourism and related sectors, according to the UNCTAD and United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) report .

“The prospects for this year do not look much better,” said Ralf Peters from the trade analysis department of UNCTAD at a press conference.

“The first three months were bad again, there wasn’t much on the way,” he said.

“In the second half of the year, at least for North America and Europe, a certain recovery can be expected,” he told Reuters and counted vaccinations.

Tourists wearing face masks walk with their luggage when they arrive at Malaga-Costa del Sol Airport in Malaga, Spain on June 7, 2021. REUTERS / Jon Nazca

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The report sets out three scenarios for 2021 that show international tourism arrivals will decrease 63% to 75% from pre-pandemic levels, resulting in losses of between $ 1.7 trillion and $ 2.4 trillion Dollar leads.

“In international tourism we are at the level of 30 years ago, so basically we are in the 80s … Many livelihoods are really threatened,” said Zoritsa Urosevic, Geneva representative of the Madrid-based UNWTO.

“What we’re aiming for in the long run is to get the 2019 numbers after 2023,” she said.

Sandra Carvao, head of market research at the UNWTO, said it would be “a very diverse recovery” that varies by region and country.

The European Union’s digital COVID-19 certificate, due to come into force on Thursday, is the only regional harmonization so far, she said.

Regarding travel corridors, Carvao said, “We see, for example, that the Asia-Pacific is currently still one of the most closed regions in the world – most borders in the countries are either completely closed or have significant restrictions.”

Reporting by Stephanie Nebehay, Editing by William Maclean

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