The global hospitality industry has a long way to go after experiencing its worst year on record in 2020. However, STR’s Robin Rossmann expects the situation to feel normal again within two years.

During the Global Hotel Overview session of the online hotel data conference: Global Edition, Rossmann said total performance numbers could be close to pre-pandemic by the second half of 2022. Rossmann is the managing director at STR, CoStars hospitality analytics company.

“By [fourth quarter] In 2022, depending on where you are in the world, demand will be anywhere from 80% to more than 100% of 2019 levels, ”he said. “I’m just saying again that within seven quarters of today, it’s going to feel pretty normal. Demand will be pretty close to hitting 2019 levels. “

Until then, there will be a lot of pain for the industry, with “some pretty tough months until 2021, and I think early 2022.”

The revenue recovery will take much longer. It is expected that the hotels will not reach the revenue per available room of 2019 until 2024 at the earliest.

“But remember, 2019 was a banner year for our industry so it will be some time before we get back,” he said.

Performance will be very different around the world and even across different segments and property types at the market level, said Rossmann.

Gateway markets, which are heavily reliant on business and group travel in addition to international travel, were hardest hit by the downturn. Rossmann specifically described London as a city that faced major challenges during the pandemic and will see a steep rise to normal.

He said that London hotel performance data revealed some interesting and unexpected trends, including the fact that there isn’t a strong correlation between historical declines in demand and hotelier price cuts. Short-term rentals have also been able to maintain more consistent demand than hotels.

“You can see hotels with 10% to 20% occupancy and short-term rentals with 40% to 50% occupancy are hitting the bottom,” he said.

The gap is partly due to business travelers choosing a more comfortable extended stay situation than hotels can offer, Rossmann said, noting that length of stay for short-term rentals in the London market has increased.

“We have seen short-term rentals go from an average of four nights to around 10 to 12 nights in London,” he said. “So why is there this perception that if you want to stay long, you have to stay in a short-term rental? … There is a real opportunity for hotels to do this type of business.”

Six other markets that are heavily dependent on international demand – Bogota, Colombia; Buenos Aires, Argentina; Sau Paulo, Brazil; Rome, Italy; Marrakech, Morocco; and Nairobi, Kenya – had hotel occupancy of less than 25% throughout 2020.

As bad as this picture is, Rossmann emphasized that the situation is not permanent and that there will be a return in international demand at some point.

“Don’t panic,” he said. “It will come back.”


While this was a historically challenging time for hoteliers, Rossmann said there should be cause for optimism and excitement, noting that “every hike begins at the bottom of a mountain”.

“We did some training here,” he said. “We can learn from the past, and the key to success is training.”

He pointed out that the individual success of hotels is determined not only by macroeconomic issues, government regulations, and the success of vaccination efforts, but also by the decisions made by executives of individual properties and companies. The key is to be as informed as possible about what is happening at the market level, he said.

The 2020 performance gaps between hotels in individual markets were the largest STR has ever observed, Rossmann said.

For example, the occupancy of hotels in Edinburgh, Scotland varied by 10% to 20% in 2019, but that spread increased to 70% to 80% in 2020.

“If you don’t compare yourself with your competitors and yours [competitive set] You are blind to what is going on in your market, “he said.” You need to focus on this level more than ever. “


Rossmann said it should be reassuring to hoteliers that government restrictions are seen as the number one barrier to travel in a survey of travelers. He said it was a sign that people will travel when they have the opportunity.

“This is good news because we know when [restrictions] Go away so that pent-up demand comes through, “he said.

In order to capture these first waves of demand, hoteliers had to learn to be more flexible, especially with cancellation policies, as the uncertainty for potential travelers remains high. He said getting a higher number of bookings – even if the likelihood of cancellations is higher – is a good business strategy right now.

“You still do better [bookings] sooner rather than later because we’ve shown that those on the books for business are more likely to continue to outperform in the end, especially if your location isn’t a niche vacation destination everyone wants to go, “he said.

He said flexible cancellation policies are “key to securing this upfront deal”.

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