A recovery in passenger air traffic “is likely to be a matter of 2022”. Photo: iStock
When the coronavirus vaccine rollout began late last year, the excitement was palpable. People started browsing travel websites and airlines became optimistic about flying again. Ryanair even launched a “Jab & Go” campaign with pictures of 20 people on vacation, drinks in hand.
It doesn’t work that way.
First of all, it’s not clear that the vaccines actually prevent travelers from spreading the disease, even if they are less likely to get it themselves. The shots against the more contagious mutant strains that led governments from Australia to Britain to close borders instead of opening them are also unproven. An ambitious push by air carriers for digital health passports to replace the mandatory quarantines that meet demand for travel is also challenging and has not yet convinced the World Health Organization.
Many of the world’s largest airlines have launched apps from IATA and others. Photo: Delivered
This bleak reality has pushed back expectations for a significant recovery in global travel by 2022. This could be too late to save the many airlines with just a few months of cash left. And the delay threatens to kill the careers of hundreds of thousands of pilots, flight crews and airport workers who have been unemployed for nearly a year. Instead of a return to global connectivity – one of the economic miracles of the jet era – continued international isolation seems inevitable.
“It is very important for people to understand that right now we only know about the vaccines, which are very effective at lowering your risk of serious diseases,” said Margaret Harris, a WHO spokeswoman in Geneva. “We haven’t seen any evidence of whether or not they stop broadcasting.”
Of course, it is possible for the trip to recover on its own – without the need for vaccination certificates. Should bumps reduce infection and death rates, governments could gain enough confidence to push back quarantines and other border lines and rely more on passengers’ pre-flight Covid-19 testing.
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The United Arab Emirates, for example, has largely removed entry restrictions, apart from the need for a negative test. While UK regulators have banned Ryanair’s “Jab & Go” ad as misleading, discount airline chief Michael O’Leary still expects almost the entire population of Europe to be vaccinated by the end of September. “That is where we are exempt from these restrictions,” he said. “Short haul trips will recover strongly and quickly.”
For now, however, governments by and large remain skeptical about welcoming international visitors, and the rules change at the slightest hint of trouble. Experience Australia, which closed its borders with New Zealand last month after New Zealand reported a Covid-19 case in the community.
New Zealand and Australia, which have taken a successful approach to eradicating the virus, have both stated that their borders will not be fully opened this year. Travel bubbles such as those proposed between Asian financial centers Singapore and Hong Kong have not yet established themselves. France tightened rules on international travel on Sunday as Canada prepares to impose stricter quarantine measures.
“Air travel and aviation are at the bottom of the priority list for governments,” said Phil Seymour, president and advisor to the UK aviation company IBA Group. “It’s going to be a long way off.”
The pace of vaccine adoption is another sticking point.
While vaccination rates have improved in the United States – the world’s largest air travel market prior to the virus outbreak – vaccination programs have been a long way from aviation’s panacea. In some places, they’re just another thing people have to argue about. Vaccine nationalism in Europe has broken into disputes over the offer and who should be protected first. The region is also divided over whether a push should be a ticket to unrestricted travel.
All of this means that a recovery in passenger air traffic “is likely a 2022 thing,” said Joshua Ng, director of Alton Aviation Consultancy in Singapore. Long-haul travel may not properly resume until 2023 or 2024, he predicts. The International Air Transport Association said this week that in the worst case scenario, passenger traffic will only improve by as much as 13 percent this year. The official forecast for a 50 percent recovery was released in December.
American Airlines warned 13,000 employees Wednesday that they could be laid off, many for the second time in six months.
“At the end of 2020, we were very confident that we would be looking at a summer schedule where we would all fly our planes and require the full strength of our team,” said Doug Parker, chief executive officer and Robert Isom, president Workers. “Unfortunately that is no longer the case.”
The lack of progress is clear in the sky. According to OAG Aviation Worldwide Ltd. As of February 1, global commercial flights were less than half what they were before the pandemic. Scheduled flights in key markets such as the UK, Brazil and Spain continue to decline.
Quarantines that lock passengers in for weeks upon arrival remain the great enemy of real rebound. A better alternative, according to IATA, is a digital passport to store the vaccine and test history of the passengers, which can be used to lift the restrictions. Many of the world’s largest airlines have launched apps from IATA and others, including Singapore Airlines, Emirates, and British Airways.
“We need to work on as many options as possible,” said Richard Treeves, director of business resilience at British Airways. “We hope for the integration into these apps and common standards.”
But even the IATA recognizes that there is no guarantee that every state will accept their passport immediately, if at all. There is currently no consensus on vaccination records within the 27-member European Union. Tourism dependent countries like Greece and Portugal support the idea, and larger members, including France, are pushing back.
“We’re going to have a lack of harmony in the beginning,” said Nick Careen, IATA senior vice president of passenger affairs, at a briefing last month. “None of this is ideal.”
The airline group has asked WHO to determine that it is safe for vaccinated people to fly without quarantine in order to bolster the case for the Travel Pass. But the global health body remains unmoved.
“At this point we can only say, yes, you were vaccinated that day with this vaccine and had your booster that day – if it was a two-course vaccine -” said Harris of the WHO. “We’re working very hard to make a secure electronic system for people to have this information. But at this point, that’s all. It’s a record.”
A vaccination record would not be able to demonstrate the quality or durability of protective immunity obtained through vaccination or natural infection with viruses, Harris said.
“The idea that your natural immunity should be protective, and that you could somehow use this as a phrase for ‘I’m good to travel’ has completely disappeared.”
TNS
See also: Grounded: Seven things we don’t miss on the flight
See also: Does the COVID-19 vaccine mean we can travel overseas again?
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