The Air Drive’s New Report On Ballistic And Cruise Missiles Misses Its Goal

The US Air Force military intelligence analysts have released their latest public report on ballistic missile and cruise missile threats to the US military, with a focus on China, Iran, North Korea and Russia. However, some of the information in the report is out of date and a number of important developments appear to have been omitted entirely.

The Air Force’s National Air and Space Intelligence Center (NASIC) released the 2020 Ballistic Missile and Cruise Missile Threat Report on-line earlier this month. The last edition of this public report was published in 2017.

“With their relatively low cost of ownership, potential to penetrate defense systems, and value as a symbol of national power, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles will continue to be the offensive weapon of choice for many nations,” the report reads. “As such, they are threats that must be carefully considered in future military planning and operations.”

This is certainly true and the report provides a wealth of information on the subject. However, independent experts and organizations also quickly found strange errors, inconsistencies, and omissions. The Federation of American Scientists (FAS), a US-based think tank for global politics, conducted a particularly thorough analysis of the report worth reading in full.

As mentioned earlier, the report will initially focus on developments in China, Iran, North Korea and Russia.

China

China has significantly expanded its arsenal of ballistic missiles and cruise missiles, including nuclear and conventional types, in recent years. The DF-17 was fitted with the DF-41 Street Mobile ICBM, which is equipped with a hypersonic boost glide vehicle that you can both read about Hereand the growing importance of DF-26 family are particularly notable examples of this.

FAS identifies the description of the new Chinese JL-3 The sea-fired ballistic missile (SLBM) is a particular point of interest in the report as it turns out that this weapon can carry multiple warheads. This appears to be the first public confirmation of this capability for the JL-3 by the US intelligence community that has been reported in the past.

Development of the JL-3 began with the primary intention of making it the main armament of the nuclear powered ballistic missile submarine Type 096 (SSBN). According to NASIC, the weapon can fire multiple warheads over a range of more than 6,200 miles. The report also suggests that the deployment of the JL-3 will be a key element in the development of the country’s strategic arsenal, which is expected to double over the next 10 years. FAS notes that the expected range of the new JL-3 means that a Chinese SSBN stationed in the South China Sea would have to do so leave his base to be able to reach destinations in the continental United States and possibly venture far into the Pacific.

At the same time, strangely enough, the report does not mention the two additional submarines that are now being added to the Chinese SSBN fleet. The Pentagon’s report on China’s ballistic missile arsenal last year found that the People’s Liberation Army Navy had six Type 094 submarines with Jin-class ballistic missiles, “Four operational and two outfits at the Huludao shipyard.” However, the Type 094 submarines are armed with the previous JL-2 SLBM Reports have suggested that they could also wear JL-3.

NASIC now also regards the DF-41 ICBM as operational, which is a major change compared to the 2017 report. This can be seen in the change in the western name from the “experimental” CSS-X-20 to the CSS-20 that is in operation. At least 16 launch vehicles were deployed, according to the new report.

The DF-41 is a street-mobile ICBM that was first exhibited to the public in October 2019. With an estimated range of around 9,300 miles, it is China’s longest-range strategic nuclear weapon, and its entry into service is clearly a significant development despite the first of these missiles Reportedly used operationally In 2017, two brigades were deployed until the end of the year.

There are also more than 16 road mobile launch vehicles for DF-31A and DF-31AG ICBMs in China, according to the NASIC report, although FAS believes, based on its own open source work, that the actual number is “likely double so high “is. The NASIC report is also unclear on the warhead for the DF-31AG version, with one specified for the DF-31A variant, but “unknown” for the DF-31AG.

“The NASIC report’s forecast for the increase in Chinese ICBM nuclear warheads that can reach the United States is inconsistent and self-contradicting,” the FAS analysis said. While NASIC claims at one point in the report that this number will increase to “well over 200” in the next five years, it later delivers the number of “well over 100” in the same period, just as the 2017 report projects. As FAS notes, the report’s authors “may have simply forgotten to update the text”.

NASIC continues to credit the DF-26 with a range of more than 1,860 miles, up from more than 2,480 miles last year Pentagon report on China, also.

We now also know the western names for various Chinese missiles that have appeared in recent years. The DF-26 medium-range ballistic missile (IRBM) is now also known as the CSS-18, and the DF-17, which uses a ballistic missile to augment a non-powered DF-ZF Hypersonic Boost Glide Vehicleis called CSS-22.

An entirely new addition to the 2021 report is the air launch ballistic missile category. However, this surprisingly excludes China, suggesting that some sections of the report use data from early 2018 at the latest. The importance of this new class of ballistic missile missiles and their potential to attack large, relatively slow moving ships like aircraft carriers has been mapped by The War Zone in the past, and you can read more about it Here and Here.

Iran

This country has long been involved in controversial missile development programs and has recently uncovered a number of novel developments that The War Zone covered at length, including some so-called “Missile farms” and a Underground missile magazine.

According to NASIC, Tehran desires to have a “strategic antithesis” to the United States that could include the development of an ICBM, possibly using the technology developed for it Space program.

The most recent Iranian ballistic launch mentioned in the report is the Khorramshahr-2 MRBM in 2019. This weapon uses “warhead-installed fins to provide guidance throughout the flight.” Aside from that, and the fact that it is a liquid fueled road mobile system, there are no other details about the Khorramshahr-2 other than that it has the same range – more than 1,240 miles – as the the original Khorramshahr.

NASIC also confirms that Iran is developing a ground-based land attack cruise missile (LACM) that describes the latest Hoveyzeh LACM, which was unveiled in February 2019 as the successor to the Soumar. Both Soumar and Hoveyzeh According to NASIC, they should be based on the air cruise missile designed by the Soviet Union, the Kh-55.